Q. How does the selection of the goal finish time affect your performance?
A. Selecting a goal finish time that's too ambitious will cause you to run too fast at the start. That fast start will likely result in a slower pace in the latter part of the race and a disappointing finish time.
Q. If my 10K time predicts a 3:13 marathon, is it okay to set 3:10 as my goal?
A. Running 3 minutes faster than your predicted marathon finish time means running 7 seconds faster per mile than the pace that is presumably representative of your current fitness level.
For most marathoners, running 7 seconds per mile faster for the entire distance would be challenging and most likely not realistic.
Trying to do so could lead to a disappointing finish time.
Q. Would it be reasonable to expect an improvement over a 16- to 18-week training period that would make the 3:10 in the previous question possible?
A. Absolutely, that's why we train.
While there are no guarantees, due to numerous variables (weather, course, personal health, etc.), a good marathon training program can produce that result.
For the purpose of setting a revised goal, don't assume that improvement has occurred without confirmation from a shorter race or improved training times.
In particular, we rely on long run training times to judge a runner's improvement and his or her potential marathon performance; we use tempo training times to determine a runner's improvement and his or her potential 5K and 10K goal times.
Your improvement will depend on the type of training that you have done in the past.
Q. What distance is the best predictor? What if the 5K and 10K predict different marathon finish times?
A. The distance closest to the planned race distance is going to be the better predictor, assuming that the races were run under similar conditions.
That is, a 10K is a better predictor of your marathon finish time than a 5K race finish time and a half-marathon finish time will be a better marathon predictor than the 10K time.
If your 5K predicts a faster marathon time than what you are able to run, it is an indication that you have more speed than endurance and you need to concentrate on your longer runs.
Conversely, if your marathon finish time predicts a faster 5K time than you are able to run, then you need to work on speed and leg turnover.
Q. Are the prediction tables accurate for everyone?
A. Individuals differ in their abilities.
Some runners have more speed than endurance and vice versa.
For some runners their 5K finish times will predict a faster marathon than what they can run, while for others, their marathon times are faster than what their SK times predict.
Q. Are there differences in the tables for men and women?
A. Generally, women will run faster for longer distances and men faster for shorter distances.
That is, if you have a male and a female with the same 5K time, the female will likely run a faster marathon than the male.
Conversely, if you have a male and a female with the same marathon time, the male will likely run a faster 5K than the female.
From reviewing race results and single-age world records, we have found that older women (55 and older) tend to slow at an accelerated rate as compared to that for men.
Q. Does age make a difference in the prediction tables?
A. Aging runners usually have more endurance than speed.
If a 55-year-old runner and 20-year-old runner have the same 5K time, it is likely that the 55-year-old would run the faster half- or full marathon.
Conversely, if the 55-year-old and the 20-year-old had the same marathon time, the 20-year-old would likely have a faster 5K time.
Older runners tend to be more economical and younger runners have more speed.
Q. How does the course profile affect the goal finish time?
A. The fastest road racing times in the world at all distances have been set on flat courses with few turns (Berlin, Rotterdam, Chicago).
Hills, turns, rough or uneven surfaces all tend to slow the pace.
While many runners will say that a flat course is boring and that they welcome a change to the repetitive, concentrated muscular contractions, there is a time cost for those changes.
There are no clear measures to determine the time cost of specific elevation changes.
Rolling hills may make the course more interesting and fun to run; they will not contribute to a faster finish time.
Often, there are Web site forums where veteran runners of a race will estimate what the time difference is for a specific race course as compared to that for a flat course.
Those postings by past participants in the race usually provide more helpful and accurate descriptions of a race course and its difficulty than the race's Web site.
Q. Does my predicted finish time from the tables assume that there will be some elevation changes in the race?
A. Assume that the finish time prediction is valid if the race that you are using to predict your finish time at another distance is similar in terrain to that race.
That is, if you ran a hilly 5K and you are using that race time to predict your half-marathon time on a hilly course, it is likely to be a reasonable predictor.
However, if you ran a perfectly flat 10K and are using that time to predict your finish time on a hilly marathon course, then you should add time to that prediction to compensate for the additional time required for running the hills, depending on the length and steepness.
Q. How do environmental conditions influence goal finish time?
A. Ideal racing temperatures for most runners range from 40 to 60 degrees Fahrenheit (5 to 16 degrees Celsius).
A general estimate is that for every degree above 60 degrees F you will slow by l second per mile in the marathon.
Of course, there are wide individual variations based on sweat rates and body size.
Smaller runners, who are able to dissipate heat better than larger runners, have the advantage in the heat, but are disadvantaged in colder temperatures.
The extra energy cost of maintaining body temperature depends on the length of the race and one's body size.
Even light winds on a cool day (less than 60 degrees For 15 degrees C) can increase demands on the body for maintaining normal body temperature.
Needless to say, having a race day with the ideal temperature, humidity, and winds is a rare treat for the runner. Look what those once-in-a-century ideal conditions produced at the 2011 Boston Marathon.
Unpredictable environmental conditions are just one additional factor that makes determining realistic goals a challenge. Do not fool yourself by thinking that you will defy environmental conditions and their effects on physiology; you won't.
Q. As I get older my race times are slower. Is there a way to determine comparable times at my present age to those that I ran when I was younger?
A. Yes, World Masters Athletics (WMA) has developed tables that adjust performances for aging.
The age-graded factors and standards were developed based on the world records for that single year age.
Look at the results from the St. George Marathon and you will see not only runners' finish clock times and chip times, but also their age-graded percentage.
This percentage represents a comparison of an individual's performance to the world record performance by a runner of that age.
By using this method, runners can compare their performances, or percentages, to other runners or to their own performances at a younger age. It is a method for aging runners to set realistic goals.
For example, a 50-year-old female with a marathon time of 3:55 can go to Appendix C (Road Age Factors WMA 2010) and convert that 3:55 to an equivalent time for a marathon run at prime marathon age (21-29) for females by multiplying her 3:55 (235 minutes) by the 0.8420 factor for 5O-year-old female marathoners. That produces a 3:17:52 age-adjusted performance time.
Some races have begun to provide age-graded performance standards. What this means is that finish times are adjusted for the assumed performance decrement (percentage of increase in race time) based on age. Some races even present awards based on age-adjusted performance times. Younger runners no doubt see this method of adjusting times as noncompetitive, while older runners see it as eminently fair!
Q. How do I determine my age-graded performance level percentage?
A. Use the Road Age Standards WMA 2010 to find your agegraded standard and then divide the standard by your race time.
For example, a 60-year-old male with a SK time of 20:00 would divide the standard of 16:02 for a 60-year-old male by 20:00. The result (962 seconds/1200 seconds) would be 80.2 percent.
That percentage could be compared to the age-graded percentages of performances run at earlier ages or with other runners of different ages.
Q. How do I convert my current race time to an equivalent race time at an earlier age?
A. Use Road Age Factors WMA 2010 for males to find your age factor. Multiply that age factor by your current race time to determine your equivalent race time at your prime-age time.
For example, that 60-year-old male whose time is 20:00 for the 5K would multiply that 20:00 by the age factor of .8043 and see that his 20:00 5K at age 60 is equivalent to a 16:05 at prime 5K performance age for males, which is the 22- to 28-year old age group.
Q. What is the prime performance age?
A. You can see in Road Age Factors WMA 2010 that the prime age for running performances varies for males and females, as well as varying for the different distances.
The age-adjusted times are based on world records for a single age.
Males tend to run world-class times at an older age than females.
Male runners also perform at their prime at an older age for longer distances.
There are no adjustments in finish times for male marathoners until age 36, but 5K and 10K runners have finish times adjusted for age beginning at 29 and half-marathoners at age 32.
Females begin receiving age adjustments for all distances beginning at around age 30.
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